Espen Jorstad's ICM Strategy at the 2022 WSOP Main Event Final Table Explained

How Espen Jorstad used ICM-aware decisions at the 2022 WSOP Main Event final table — navigating pocket tens vs. a set, a 35-million check-raise, and a min-raise debate — to win $10 million.

GTO & Solver Basics
August 2, 2026

Table of Contents

When Espen Jorstad took his seat at the 2022 WSOP Main Event final table, he held 88.6 million chips and a clear chip lead. But the path to the $10 million bracelet was anything but smooth. In a GTO Wizard interview, Jorstad unpacked the ICM-driven decisions that defined his run — from a brutal set-over-pair on the flop to a bold 35-million check-raise on the river. Here is a hand-by-hand breakdown of the spots that tested his strategy and secured his place in poker history.

Hand 1 — A Brutal Set Traps Jorstad's Pocket Tens

Hand 1 — Farnes Bet Sizes (millions)
Pre-flop raise
2.4M
Flop bet
2.8M
Turn check-raise
7.9M
River bet
7.1M
Jorstad called all streets; river 3♠ completed Farnes set — chip lead erased

Jorstad opened the final table with 88.6 million chips against blinds of 600,000/1.2 million and a 1.2 million ante. Early-position player Jeffrey Farnes raised to 2.4 million holding pocket fours. Jorstad, with pocket tens on the button, chose to call rather than re-raise — a decision he later attributed to Farnes' unexpected opening range.

The flop came 4♠ 7♥ 9♣, giving Farnes a set. He continued for 2.8 million. Jorstad, with six outs, called. A jack arrived on the turn; Farnes check-raised to 7.9 million. Jorstad called again. The river brought 3♠ — Farnes bet 7.1 million (roughly a quarter-pot sizing) and Jorstad called once more, only to find his chip lead had evaporated.

"I don't know how I feel about calling turn and river here. I don't know, it feels like the sizing was way too small. I just need to be right so rarely." — Espen Jorstad — (see original)

Hand 2 — ICM Pressure Turns Middle Pair into a 35-Million Check-Raise

Hand 2 — Middle Pair Check-Raise Sequence
1Pre-flop
Jorstad opens UTG A♣10♥; Duek (K♣J♣) and Duczak (8♠5♠) call BB
2Flop 2♥Q♥10♠
Jorstad checks middle pair (ICM caution); Duek bets 4.5M, Jorstad calls
3Turn 6♠
No improvement for either player; both check back
4River 3♥
Jorstad checks; Duek bets 7M; Jorstad check-raises to 35M — Duek folds
Passive flop + aggressive river exploited ICM pressure on comparable stacks

Later, with a stack of 68.4 million and blinds at 1.2 million, Jorstad opened from under the gun with A♣ 10♥. Michael Duek (K♣ J♣) and Aaron Duczak (8♠ 5♠) called from the big blind.

The flop fell 2♥ Q♥ 10♠, giving Jorstad middle pair. He checked — citing ICM pressure from comparable stacks behind him. Duek, holding an open-ended straight draw, bet 4.5 million; Jorstad called. Both checked the 6♠ turn. On the 3♥ river, Jorstad checked again. Duek bet 7 million. Jorstad responded with a 35-million check-raise, forcing Duek to fold.

"I'm not sure, honestly." — Espen Jorstad — (see original)

Hand 3 — When the Simulator Says Jam but You Min-Raise

Hand 3 — AQ Button: GTO vs Jorstad
GTO Simulation
  • Action: Jam all-in
  • Maximises fold equity vs short stacks
  • Minimises ICM leakage
Jorstad's Play
  • Action: Min-raise to 24M
  • Attenborough called with K♥J♠
  • Attenborough hit king on turn, finished runner-up
Stack context: Jorstad 98.75M | SB 12BB | BB 6BB

With 98.75 million chips on the button and A♣ Q♠, Jorstad faced a 2-million big blind — one of the shortest stacks at the table — and a six-big-blind small blind. GTO Wizard simulations recommended jamming all-in. Instead, Jorstad min-raised to 24 million.

Philippe Souki folded from the small blind; Adrian Attenborough called with K♥ J♠. Attenborough later hit a king on the turn and survived to finish runner-up. The hand illustrates how even a small deviation from GTO recommendations can carry significant ICM consequences when stacks are shallow and prize jumps are large.

ICM Lessons from a Champion

ICM Lessons from Jorstad's Final Table
1Chip Lead ≠ Safety
Even an 88.6M chip lead evaporates with one misread street; ICM is always active
2Check for Chip Equity
With comparable stacks behind, passive lines protect your tournament equity
3Check-Raise as ICM Weapon
A 35M check-raise forced a fold and shifted equity without a showdown
4Trust Sims — With Context
GTO said jam; Jorstad min-raised — real-time reads can override sims, but carry risk
Jorstad's $10M win: disciplined ICM-aware play beats pure GTO in real tournament spots

Jorstad's final table run shows that chip leads are only as safe as the decisions protecting them. A large stack does not exempt a player from ICM pressure — it merely shifts the nature of that pressure. His willingness to check middle pair on the flop, execute a 35-million check-raise on the river, and deviate from GTO on a min-raise all reflect the delicate balance between equity preservation and timely aggression.

Simulations provide a baseline, but Jorstad's experience shows that real-time judgment — informed by, but not chained to, GTO models — can be decisive in high-ICM spots. For aspiring tournament players, his breakdown offers a practical roadmap: quantify the ICM impact of every action, protect your stack with passive lines when comparable stacks are behind you, and deploy check-raises when they amplify ICM pressure on opponents.

Summary

Espen Jorstad won the 2022 WSOP Main Event for $10 million by navigating three critical ICM spots: absorbing a full-stack loss on a set vs. overpair (Hand 1), converting middle pair into a 35-million check-raise that took the pot without a showdown (Hand 2), and min-raising instead of jamming against short stacks (Hand 3). The overarching lesson is that ICM awareness — not chip count alone — determines tournament survival and success at the highest level.

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