2026 WSOP Main Event Bubble: Day 4 Level 17 Forecast, 10,000-Entry Field and Latest Chip Counts

WSOP Czar Kevin Mathers projects the 2026 Main Event money bubble will burst early on Day 4, around Level 17. We break down four years of bubble history, Brad Booth's return after a decade away, and the top 10 chip counts from Day 1d.

Table of Contents

The Bottom Line: Bubble Expected to Pop Early on Day 4, Around Level 17

The 2026 WSOP Main Event money bubble is expected to burst early on Day 4, around Level 17. That projection comes from WSOP Czar Kevin Mathers, and it aligns with the historical trend: in 2025 the bubble popped just after Level 17, and in 2024 it burst a few levels later. In practical terms, players who survive the first 17 levels of Day 4 can expect to be in the money, while those who fall just short will feel the sting of a near-miss.

Projected Path to the Bubble (2026)
1End of Day 3
1,524 players remain
2Day 4 begins
Bubble tension peaks
3Around Level 17
Bubble expected to pop (Kevin Mathers)
4In the money
Survivors lock up a payday
Based on WSOP Czar Kevin Mathers' projection and the last three years' trend

With a 10,000-entry field and seasoned veterans like Brad Booth making a comeback, the stakes around this year's bubble are higher than ever.

The 2026 Field and Four Years of Bubble History

The 2026 Main Event opened with a record-setting 10,000 entries, and Day 1d alone saw 4,694 players take the green-lit tables. By the end of Day 3, the field had shrunk to just 1,524 players, leaving only a handful of eliminations before the money is officially paid. This pattern mirrors the last three years, where the bubble has consistently burst in the early hours of Day 4.

WSOP Main Event Entries by Year
2026
10000 entries
2025
9735 entries
2024
10112 entries
2023
10043 entries
2022
8663 entries
2026 drew 10,000 entries, with 4,694 players on Day 1d alone
YearDay 3 FieldPaidPlayers Remaining
20253,453 of 9,7351,4621,476
20243,617 of 10,1121,5181,524
20233,538 of 10,0431,5071,518
20222,993 of 8,6631,302Money reached late on Day 3
Players Paid (ITM) by Year
2025
1462 players
2024
1518 players
2023
1507 players
2022
1302 players
Payout counts from the bubble-history table in this article

For a closer look at how the early flights unfolded, see our 2026 WSOP Main Event Day 1b results recap, covering the top stacks and notable eliminations.

Brad Booth Returns After More Than a Decade

After more than a decade away from the Main Event, Canadian veteran Brad Booth re-entered the field on Day 2abc, sitting on a 55,000-chip stack two levels into the tournament. Booth's return is more than a nostalgic headline; it is a personal redemption story.

Brad Booth's Road Back
12013
Last live tournament cash
2A decade-plus away
Absent from the Main Event
32026, Day 2abc
Re-enters with a 55,000-chip stack
4The goal
Cash the Main and honor promises to friends and family
The Canadian veteran's comeback story
"It's been a minute, definitely north of a decade." - Brad Booth - (see original)

His goal is to secure his first live tournament cash since 2013 and to honor commitments he made to friends and family during a difficult period of his life. As he told PokerNews:

"Oh, cashing the Main would mean a lot for me, but it would also mean a lot for others." - Brad Booth - (see original)

Day 41 Highlights: Top 10 Chip Counts After Day 1d

Day 41 of the 2026 WSOP was dominated by the Main Event, with 4,694 entrants on Day 1d. Taylor von Kriegenbergh led the way after the first day, amassing 312,800 chips.

Top 5 Chip Counts After Day 1d
T. von Kriegenbergh
312800 chips
M. Comisso
293000 chips
S. Costa
292600 chips
M. Rossitto
289300 chips
T. Burke
287000 chips
Taylor von Kriegenbergh leads with 312,800 chips (full top 10 in the table)
RankPlayerChip Count
1Taylor von Kriegenbergh312,800
2Michael Comisso293,000
3Sean Costa292,600
4Michael Rossitto289,300
5Terrence Burke287,000
6David Wells283,000
7Juan Becerra277,000
8Jameson Kauch263,500
9Gonzalo Almada256,100
10Alexander Dovzhenko255,000

With Day 2abc set to shuffle at 11:00 a.m. local time, surviving players will face fresh blinds and a new wave of competition. The Main Event's structure ensures that every level brings a new challenge, and the bubble's timing will test players' stamina and focus.

What It Means for Players: Strategy Before and After the Bubble

An early Day 4 bubble means that players who can navigate the first 17 levels of the fourth day will secure a payday, while those who fall just short walk away with nothing. In the high-variance environment of a 10,000-entry field, this dynamic forces players to balance aggression with caution.

Strategy Before vs. After the Bubble
Near the Bubble
  • Preserve chips above all
  • Tighten hand selection to lock up a cash
  • Avoid high-variance confrontations
Already Cashed / Big Stack
  • Take calculated risks
  • Pressure the short stacks
  • Build a stack aimed at the final table
How bubble timing shapes betting strategy
  • Players close to the money tend to tighten up to preserve chips
  • Those who have already cashed can take calculated risks to build a stack that survives the final days
  • For veterans like Booth, the bubble is a chance to prove experience still matters; newcomers must rely on disciplined play to survive the early stages

As the tournament progresses, the focus shifts from simply making the money to positioning for the final table. For a full game plan across this marathon event, see our WSOP Main Event marathon strategy guide.

Key Takeaways

Four Keys to Surviving the Bubble
1Days 1-3
Stay disciplined and protect your stack
2Early Day 4
Expect the bubble around Level 17
3On the bubble
Balance aggression with caution
4After cashing
Shift to building for the final table
A recap of this article's key points
  • The 2026 WSOP Main Event drew a record 10,000 entries, with 4,694 players on Day 1d alone
  • WSOP Czar Kevin Mathers projects the bubble will burst early on Day 4, around Level 17 - just as it did in 2025
  • The field stood at 1,524 players at the end of Day 3, only a handful of eliminations from the money
  • Brad Booth is back after more than a decade, chasing his first live cash since 2013
  • Taylor von Kriegenbergh leads the Day 1d chip counts with 312,800
  • Tighten up to protect a cash near the bubble; once in the money, shift to building a final-table stack
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